CONTEXT
Climate change, food security concerns, and the need for environmental sustainability pose significant challenges to agricultural systems worldwide. South Korea’s heavy reliance on rice monoculture underscores its vulnerability to these challenges, necessitating exploration of crop diversification as a potential solution.
OBJECTIVES
This study assesses the vulnerability of the current rice production system to climate-driven yield changes and evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of transition to soybean cultivation as an alternative.
METHODS
This study employs a regional integrated assessment approach to predict the adoption rates of soybean cultivation. By combining site-specific yield estimates, farm-level economic data, and economic modeling, the research assesses potential outcomes focusing on farm income, domestic supply, and greenhouse gas emissions.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Results show that soybean adoption offers economic benefits and emission reductions, particularly for larger farms. However, small farms face greater climate risks, necessitating targeted policy support. Despite soybean’s economic potential under current climate and economic conditions, its adoption remains limited. This suggests that factors beyond profitability influence farmers’ crop choices.
SIGNIFICANCE
This study highlights the need for region-specific policies that not only incentivize soybean adoption but also address the broader socioeconomic barriers hindering crop diversification efforts, ultimately enhancing climate resilience, food security, and emission reductions.